Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

As of the hard cutoff of January 14, 2026, verifiable facts are: Ali Khamenei is still the nominal Supreme Leader of Iran, and no resignation, detention, or succession process has been officially announced; but he has not appeared in public for many weeks since late 2025, the Iranian foreign minister's confirmation was vague ("as far as I know he is alive"), official media were accused of using old photos/still images instead of live appearances, and U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said he was "injured and disfigured" in an attack. Analysis and inference: there is major uncertainty about his true condition (dead, comatose, injured, or alive); even if he is dead or incapacitated, the regime (IRGC) has strong incentives to delay an official announcement until succession arrangements are complete, and this market requires "credible reporting consensus" to confirm that he was removed from office or unable to perform duties for any length of time before 11:59 PM ET on February 28; mere rumors of death or coma are not enough to trigger Yes. Overall judgment: the probability of official confirmation or consensus confirmation within the roughly 6.5-week window is less than 50-50, so the stance is No; but if he died in an attack earlier and official or credible reports confirm his loss of position or inability to perform duties within the window, the market will turn Yes, so I retain about a 35% Yes probability.

As of January 14, 2026, I judge that the probability of Khamenei remaining in office until February 28 is higher, so I choose NO. Although nationwide protests, US military threats, and a crisis of regime legitimacy significantly raised the tail risks of his forced removal, incapacitation, or external strike, the public evidence at that time showed he could still speak publicly and command the crackdown, and there were no signs of security apparatus splits or elite defections; protest scale had also clearly declined. For the Iranian system to undergo a change of Supreme Leader within just six weeks would require extreme events or internal collapse, and the baseline probability remains lower than no change. The relevant bases for judgment include Reuters' assessment that no cracks were seen in the security system, the sharp drop in protest numbers on January 12, and Khamenei's own public declaration in early January that he would not back down.[web:86][web:80][web:46]

As of January 14, 2026, despite large-scale anti-government demonstrations in Iran caused by severe currency devaluation and economic crisis, and harsh suppression by security forces, Iran's core security and military apparatus (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij militia, etc.) still maintains loyalty and control over Supreme Leader Khamenei. Khamenei is 86 years old and has been in power for more than 30 years, with a deeply entrenched political and military control system. In the short period of only one and a half months (until February 28, 2026), the probability of a sudden complete collapse of the regime, internal coup, or removal of the Supreme Leader is relatively limited. Therefore, based on information assessment in mid-January 2026, the baseline forecast tends to favor Khamenei continuing to serve as Supreme Leader before this deadline.

As of 20:00 on January 14, 2026, Khamenei's power base is solid. He was still able to deliver a national televised speech on January 9 to perform his duties. Iran's security forces have brought the January unrest under control, and the IRGC, as the core force, firmly supports his rule. The likelihood of him being removed from the position of Supreme Leader in the short term is low.

As of the knowledge cutoff on January 14, 2026, Ali Khamenei still serves as Iran's Supreme Leader, and there are no reliable signs that he will be removed, resign, be detained, or lose the ability to perform his duties before February 28. Although he is elderly (about 86 years old) and has long-term health concerns, with domestic protests and external pressure, the regime's control is strong, suppression mechanisms are effective, and succession preparations are more about continuity planning than immediate change. The probability of stepping down in the short term due to health or coup is low, and historical precedents show that changes in the Supreme Leader position are mostly due to death and proceed slowly.

As of 20:00 UTC on January 14, 2026, what has been verified is: nationwide protests and an unusually bloody crackdown have put the regime under significant pressure; the U.S. is also weighing military action and has moved some personnel from the Qatar base, indicating that the risk of external strikes is real. However, Reuters still found no signs of a split among the security elite, CRS also stated that there was no widespread defection among the military, security agencies, or political elite, the protest movement lacked unified organization, and the crackdown appeared to be reducing street activity. My judgment is that the path to removing Khamenei through protests or an internal coup in the next six weeks or so remains weak; targeted strikes and sudden health events constitute significant tail risks, so I choose NO, but with only medium confidence.

As of January 14, 2026, there are no credible authoritative reports confirming that Khamenei has resigned, been arrested, or lost the position of Supreme Leader; on the contrary, in early January he publicly stated that he would not yield, and official media continued to publish his remarks, indicating that he is still performing his duties. Although nationwide protests in Iran, threats from the US and Israel, and rumors of senior officials fleeing abroad create high uncertainty in the coming weeks, existing evidence is insufficient to support that he will be ousted or leave office before February 28.

As of January 14, 2026, Khamenei is clearly still in office and publicly active: on January 3 and January 9, he gave consecutive tough speeches, condemning protesters and refusing to yield to US-Israeli pressure; on January 12, the Associated Press reported that Iran's leadership, though under pressure from protests, remains in power. No authoritative source reported his resignation, detention, incapacitation, or forced removal before the deadline. The design of Iran's Supreme Leader system makes it extremely difficult for domestic forces to overthrow him, and the Revolutionary Guards and clerical establishment remain loyal. Although he is 86 years old and has long-standing health rumors, he has continued to appear publicly and perform duties before the deadline, with no signs of acute critical illness. Overall, the probability of removal before February 28 is low, but sudden health events and loss of control constitute tail risks.

As of January 14, 2026, despite the most serious protests in Iran since 1979 and US threats of military intervention, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains firmly in power. Official media confirmed that he gave a speech on January 9, calling for unity and a tough response to protesters [33]. Although there are rumors about his health, there is no credible evidence that he has lost the ability to perform duties or been removed. The market rule's definition of 'losing power' (resignation, detention, inability to perform duties) is unlikely to occur before the deadline because the regime's core institutions (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) remain loyal to him and are forcefully suppressing protests [33][37].

As of the information cutoff on January 14, 2026, Khamenei remained firmly in office and publicly performing his duties: on January 9, he addressed the public at his Tehran residence, broadcast on state television, blaming Trump for inciting unrest and setting the tone for suppression, and later stated he was "willing to talk to protesters, but rioters must be subdued." The nationwide protests that began on December 28, 2025, though unprecedented in scale (over 185 cities in 31 provinces, more than 2,500 deaths, 18,400 arrests), had been largely suppressed after bloody crackdowns and a nationwide internet shutdown—Critical Threats assessed on January 14 that the suppression had "temporarily suppressed the protest movement," and the Times of Israel reported the same day that the protests "appeared to be extinguished." There were sporadic defections of mid-level officers from the security apparatus, but overall it remained loyal and did not prevent the suppression from being carried out. Although the U.S. had moved the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and threatened "forceful" military action, Trump himself said on January 14 that violence had decreased and executions would not happen, preferring in the short term to use military pressure to negotiate a nuclear deal rather than decapitation. In the roughly 6.5-week window from January 14 to February 28, triggering "resignation, detention, loss of position, or inability to perform duties" would require a sudden event that had not yet appeared. Historical baseline also supports NO: the protests of 1999, 2009, 2019, 2022, and the twelve-day Iran-Israel war in June 2025 did not shake his position.

Based on information analysis as of January 14, 2026, the possibility of Ali Khamenei being removed from office or leaving the position of Supreme Leader before February 28, 2026 is extremely low. The main reasons are as follows: 1. **Authoritative reports confirm Khamenei is still performing his duties**: Multiple authoritative sources (such as AP, AFP) in reports up to January 14, 2026 did not mention any signs of health problems or removal of Khamenei. On the contrary, Khamenei still made public speeches in early January 2026, showing that he is still performing the duties of Supreme Leader. For example, AFP's report on January 14, 2026 clearly stated that Khamenei faces multiple crises but maintains power through suppression and strategic adjustments, without mentioning any possibility or plan for his removal or resignation. 2. **Succession process has not been initiated**: According to Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, when the Supreme Leader is absent, the Assembly of Experts should elect a new leader as soon as possible, and a temporary leadership council should exercise authority. However, as of January 14, 2026, there are no reliable reports or official statements indicating that the Assembly of Experts has initiated the election process or that Khamenei has lost the ability to perform his duties. Iranian official media and international media have not reported substantive progress on succession, indicating that Khamenei is still in office. 3. **Domestic political stability in Iran**: Despite large-scale protests in Iran from late 2025 to early 2026, Khamenei has maintained regime stability through tough measures (such as suppression and arrests). A report by the International Crisis Group pointed out that Khamenei has historically responded to crises through high-pressure means, and there is currently no sign that his ruling foundation is shaken. In addition, the Iranian government was still operating normally in January 2026, such as President Masoud Pezeshkian's governance activities and the normal functioning of the parliament, all showing no vacancy or imminent change in the Supreme Leader position. 4. **External threats have not led to power change**: Although the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran in June 2025, Khamenei consolidated power through tough statements and domestic mobilization. For example, in his speech on November 27, 2025, Khamenei explicitly refused to cooperate with the US and emphasized that Iran was not defeated in the war. This shows that external military pressure has not weakened his authority, but may have strengthened the legitimacy of his rule. 5. **Social media and fact-checking organizations have debunked rumors**: Multiple fact-checking organizations (such as AFP Fact Check) in reports released in January and February 2026 clearly stated that rumors about Khamenei's health deterioration or death are false information, and related images and videos are AI-generated or old news misrepresented. For example, AFP's report on January 20, 2026 pointed out that a video claiming to show Khamenei's funeral was actually the funeral of an Iraqi Shiite religious figure in January 2026, unrelated to Khamenei.

As of January 14, 2026, public authoritative information shows that Ali Khamenei is still performing the duties of Iran's Supreme Leader normally, and there is no reliable source indicating that he will be removed from office, resign, or lose the ability to perform his duties before February 28, 2026, so the probability of this event occurring is extremely low.

Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has been in office since 1989, over 35 years. Iran's Islamic Republic political system is centered on the Supreme Leader, a de facto lifetime position with no historical precedent of forced removal. Although Khamenei is advanced in age (about 86), as of the knowledge cutoff, there is no reliable public information indicating a major health crisis or internal coup that would force his resignation, detention, or inability to perform duties. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and judiciary are loyal to the Supreme Leader, and the internal power structure is highly stable. Based on structural factors, the probability of Khamenei being removed from power before February 28, 2026, is low.

As of January 14, 2026, authoritative reports and research materials show no reliable evidence that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has been removed, detained, or forced to completely lose the ability to perform duties in the short term. Iran's political structure determines that the position of Supreme Leader is extremely stable, and there is no public legal or illegal power transfer arrangement. Major domestic and international media have not reported any major event or credible signal indicating he would lose power before February 28, 2026, thus supporting the judgment that he will not be removed before that date.

Before the knowledge cutoff of January 14, 2026, there were no authoritative reports indicating that Khamenei would be removed from office before February 28, 2026.