Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Based on market data before 16:00 on March 9, 2026, the near-total halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe crude supply disruption, and WTI futures intraday touched $118.88, just one step away from $120. Although the settlement price on March 9 was $94.77, with more than 20 trading days remaining and supply tightness persisting, institutions predict that in extreme scenarios prices may exceed historical peaks, so the active month settlement price reaching $120 has a relatively high possibility.

As of March 9, 2026, WTI crude oil has surged from about $70 in late February to above $90 (breaking above $90 on March 6) driven by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and escalation of the US-Iran conflict. To reach $120 by the end of March, it only needs to rise another about 30%, and it has already achieved about a 30% increase in the past two weeks, with no signs of easing in the conflict and rhetoric continuing to escalate. Given the real threat to physical supply and the inertia of historical safe-haven premiums, the probability of touching $120 is high.

I choose YES, with a probability of 56%. As of 16:00:23 UTC on March 9, 2026, WTI intraday has touched approximately $119.48, only about $0.52 away from $120; the escalation of the Iran conflict, disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and production cuts by oil-producing countries together constitute strong short-term upward catalysts.[web:1][web:3] However, market rules require the official settlement price of the CME active front month to reach the threshold, not the intraday high; CME settles WTI for the first six contract months primarily based on trading activity from 14:28–14:30 ET and the front-month VWAP, so an intraday touch of $120 does not guarantee the condition is met.[web:16] Considering the extremely close price distance and significant supply shock risk, I judge YES to have a slight advantage.

I choose NO, probability 58%. Verified: at 11:15 UTC on March 9, the front-month WTI fell from near $120 overnight to about $102.7, still needing about a 16.8% rise to reach the threshold; and CME only recognizes the volume-weighted average price of the 14:28–14:30 ET settlement window, intraday spikes do not count. Analytically, the strait and production disruptions could still trigger another surge, but strategic reserves, expectations of conflict easing, relatively loose global supply-demand before the crisis, and the backwardated curve together lower the probability of prices standing above $120 at the settlement window. The mid-month switch of the active contract to a lower-priced later month also slightly increases difficulty.

As of 16:00 UTC on March 9, 2026, the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed oil prices up about 30% in a week, with Brent intraday briefly breaking above $119 (highest since 2022), but the resolution criterion for this market is the official settlement price of the CME CL front-month contract: WTI is typically about $4-6 lower than Brent, estimated CL intraday peak around $114-116, not yet touching the $120 settlement line; and on March 9 intraday there was already a sharp pullback (CNN reported the same day that oil prices briefly broke above $100 then violently swung back), Trump hinted the war might end soon. In the remaining about 16 trading days, to reach an official settlement of $120 requires a further significant escalation of the war and a rise of more than 5% in WTI at the settlement time, which is a possible tail scenario rather than the base case, so I choose NO (65% vs 35%).

As of the knowledge cutoff on March 9, 2026, the intraday high of the active WTI crude oil contract touched approximately $119.48, but the official settlement price was only $94.77, far below the $120 threshold. The supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz triggered violent fluctuations, but Trump has released signals that the war may end soon, considering taking over the strait, discussing G7 joint release of strategic reserves, and possibly relaxing sanctions on Russia, causing prices to fall sharply from the high. The settlement price depends on the closing window rather than intraday extremes, and sustained strong buying is needed to push it to $120. The remaining trading days until the end of March are limited, and under the policy intention to lower prices and profit-taking pressure, it is relatively difficult for the settlement price to stand above $120 again. Although escalation risks still exist, the current momentum supports NO more.

As of March 9, 2026, the current price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures (CL=F) is far below $120 per barrel, and recent trends do not show clear momentum for a significant upward move to $120 in the short term. Baseline scenario forecasts for 2026 oil prices by the International Energy Agency, OPEC, and major investment banks are mostly in the $60–90 range, and there is a lack of major supply disruptions or demand surges that could drive prices above $110–120 in the short term. At the same time, US shale oil production is relatively stable, and global inventories remain at neutral to high levels, limiting upside room for oil prices. Without extreme geopolitical escalation or systemic supply shocks, the probability of breaking above $120 by the end of March is low.

As of March 9, 2026, based on the current CME crude oil futures settlement price levels, the cumulative upside required over the remaining trading days, the marginal changes in current crude oil supply and demand fundamentals, and the short-term oil price forecast ranges from mainstream institutions, the difficulty of reaching a settlement price of $120 before the end of March is relatively high, and it is more inclined to judge that this price level cannot be achieved.

Based on analysis of current market dynamics and geopolitical factors, the probability of crude oil prices reaching $120 by the end of March is low.

As of March 9, 2026, WTI crude oil has surged to about $101.56 (March 8 data) due to the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risks. On March 9, it approached $118 intraday, but then fell significantly after Trump said the war may "end soon", G7 discussed releasing strategic reserves, and institutions like BlackRock believed the energy shock may last only a few weeks. The CME official settlement price needs to be ≥$120 before the end of March; in the baseline scenario, supply disruptions are considered temporary, the market does not believe high oil prices will persist, and the current price still has a significant gap to $120, requiring a significant escalation of the conflict to reach it. Therefore, the probability of NO is higher, but geopolitical tail upside risks cannot be ignored.

Based on information available as of March 9, 2026, the likelihood of crude oil futures prices reaching or exceeding $120 before the end of March is relatively low. The main reasons are as follows: 1. **Supply and demand fundamentals**: According to EIA and IEA forecasts, global crude oil supply will continue to exceed demand in 2026, and inventory accumulation will put downward pressure on oil prices. EIA expects Brent crude oil to average $58 per barrel in 2026, far below the $120 threshold. Although geopolitical risks cause short-term oil price fluctuations, the oversupply fundamentals are unlikely to support a sustained rise to $120. 2. **OPEC+ policy**: OPEC+ decided in March 2026 to suspend production increase plans and maintain current output levels to cope with seasonal demand weakness and market stability. This move indicates that OPEC+ tends to support prices by controlling supply, but it does not release signals of significant production cuts or actively pushing prices higher. The resumption of production increases is expected in April, and the increment is limited (206,000 barrels per day), which is insufficient to significantly change the supply-demand pattern. 3. **Geopolitical risks**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (such as US-Israeli military actions against Iran) pushed oil prices up in the short term, and WTI crude oil futures prices approached $120 in early March. However, historical experience shows that price surges caused by geopolitical risks are usually short-lived and difficult to sustain at high levels. EIA and market analysts generally believe that the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices will gradually weaken, and prices will return to supply-demand fundamentals. 4. **Market expectations and volatility**: Analysts (such as ING, J.P. Morgan) predict that oil prices will fall in the second half of 2026, with Brent crude oil averaging below $80 per barrel. Although geopolitical risks may push oil prices higher in the short term, the $120 per barrel threshold is significantly higher than market expectations, and the likelihood of achieving it is low. 5. **CME crude oil futures settlement price**: According to CME rules, only the official settlement price of the active month can be used as the basis for judgment. Although crude oil futures prices approached $120 in early March, this level was not confirmed in the official settlement price. Considering the volatility of the remaining trading days in March and market pullback pressure, the likelihood of the settlement price breaking $120 is low.

As of March 9, 2026, despite the short-term surge in oil prices caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, with WTI and Brent crude futures briefly breaking above $110 per barrel intraday, the market has not stabilized above $120. Historical data shows that such geopolitically driven price spikes are often accompanied by huge volatility and subsequent pullbacks. In addition, major institutions such as Goldman Sachs and the EIA, in their forecasts from late 2025 to early 2026, all expect the average crude oil price in 2026 to fall back to the $60-70 range, indicating long-term fundamental pressure of oversupply. To achieve and maintain a CME official settlement price at or above $120 in the remaining trading days of March (until March 31), extreme and sustained supply disruptions or market panic would be required. Current signs suggest the market is more likely to pull back after high-level fluctuations rather than firmly stand above the $120 mark.

As of March 9, 2026, for crude oil prices to soar to the historic high of $120 per barrel within just over a week of trading days, extremely significant supply disruptions or geopolitical shock events would be needed. From the current market supply-demand fundamentals, US crude oil production remains high, OPEC+ production increase policies are gradually being implemented, and global demand growth expectations are moderate. These factors together constrain the room for significant upward movement in oil prices. Even with short-term volatility, the probability of CME official settlement price reaching or exceeding $120 remains low.

As of 16:00 UTC on March 9, 2026, the WTI front-month contract is around $85-87, with Friday's (March 6) settlement at $90.90, and Monday's drop of about 6% due to Trump's remarks on the Strait of Hormuz. To reach an official settlement price of $120 before the last trading day of March, it would need to rise about 41% in about 16 trading days. Although a Hormuz blockade is the largest supply disruption in history and volatility is extremely high (WTI recorded its largest weekly gain of 35.6% in the first week of March), three structural resistances make the $120 settlement threshold difficult: First, WTI is the main benchmark with the least exposure to Hormuz (Cushing inland, high U.S. inventories, U.S. is a net exporter), Brent leads while WTI lags, and for WTI to reach $120 usually means Brent needs to be above $122-130; Second, the active month will switch from CLJ26 to CLK26 around March 18, and under the deep backwardation caused by the supply shock, the May contract is significantly lower than the April contract, raising the threshold in the latter half of the month; Third, the 'put options' of policy and alternative supply are strong—Saudi Petroline and UAE Fujairah pipelines have a combined bypass capacity of about 3.5-5.5 million barrels per day, IEA emergency stocks, OPEC+ production increase in April, and strong U.S. motivation to reopen the waterway, any easing news can knock off 6-9% in a single day. Estimating with an implied volatility of about 90% under crisis conditions, $120 is about 1.5 standard deviations for that term, using reflection principle the touch probability is about 14%, then adjusted down for 'settlement price rather than intraday high' and roll drag, slightly up for gap escalation risk, landing around 13%.

According to the settlement rules of the prediction market, the market will settle as "YES" only when the official settlement price of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) crude oil (CL) front-month contract reaches or exceeds $120.00 per barrel on any trading day before the last trading day of March 2026. The rules clearly stipulate that only the CME official settlement price is used, and intraday transaction prices, highest prices, etc. are not counted. On March 9, 2026, affected by severe geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, WTI crude oil futures once surged to $119.48-119.50 per barrel intraday, but then fell sharply, and the CME official settlement price that day was only $94.77 per barrel. Throughout March 2026, the CME official daily settlement price of the WTI crude oil front-month contract never reached or exceeded $120.00 per barrel. Therefore, the settlement condition was not met, and the market was determined as NO.