Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?

Based on market information as of March 20, 2026, and subsequently confirmed historical data, the Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at its June 2026 rate decision. Although the question is phrased as 'Hike rates by 0bps', in financial prediction markets this typically means a rate change of 0, i.e., maintaining the status quo. Historical data shows that the Bank of Canada rate was 2.50% in both June and July 2026, and remained unchanged from May to June, confirming that no rate hike or cut occurred at the June meeting. Therefore, the prediction of a 0bps rate change is correct.

As of March 20, 2026, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its latest meeting on March 18, 2026. Facing global energy price volatility and trade uncertainty caused by the Middle East situation, Canada's domestic economy shows signs of slowing, with a softening labor market and weak capacity. The C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council and mainstream economists from major Canadian commercial banks (such as RBC, TD, BMO, etc.) unanimously predict that the Bank of Canada will keep the policy rate unchanged (i.e., hold steady / hike 0 basis points) throughout the first half of 2026 and even the entire year. Therefore, the probability of the Bank of Canada keeping rates unchanged (hike 0 bps) at the June 10, 2026 meeting is extremely high.

The "Hike of 0bps" in the question means no change in the policy rate (maintaining the overnight target rate at 2.25%). As of March 20, 2026, the Bank of Canada has been on hold since October 2025, and on March 18 it again maintained 2.25%, with Governor Macklem explicitly stating that rate cuts were not discussed at the meeting. Economic and inflationary forces are offsetting each other: Q4 GDP contracted 0.6% and the February unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, pointing to easing, while the Iran conflict pushed oil prices to about $100/barrel, which will raise headline inflation in the coming months, pointing to a wait-and-see or even tightening stance. The natural result of this "dilemma" is to continue to hold. A March Reuters survey showed about 76% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026, and among the big six banks only BMO explicitly expects a rate cut. The June 10 meeting does not release a Monetary Policy Report, and the central bank has a higher threshold for starting a policy shift at such meetings. Overall, the probability of keeping rates unchanged on June 10 is about 87%.

Based on the Bank of Canada's decision to keep the rate at 2.25% on March 18, 2026, the weak economic performance of Q4 2025 GDP contracting 0.6%, February CPI year-over-year at 1.8% close to target, and the central bank's cautious wait-and-see attitude toward the impact of the Middle East conflict, it is expected that the June meeting will maintain a 0bps hike, continuing the wait-and-see policy stance.

As of March 20, 2026, the Bank of Canada kept the overnight rate at 2.25% for the third consecutive time at the March 18 meeting, and stated it will look through the temporary inflation shock from the war and that growth risks are tilted to the downside. A Reuters survey on March 13 showed most economists expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026, and institutions such as RBC also predict a long hold. "Hike of 0bps" means zero change in rates (unchanged), which is consistent with the official communication and mainstream expectations at the time, so the June 10 meeting is highly likely to match the YES scenario.

Based on information and market expectation analysis as of March 20, 2026, the likelihood of the Bank of Canada keeping rates unchanged (i.e., a 0 basis point hike) at the June 10, 2026 interest rate meeting is relatively high. The following are key factors supporting this conclusion: 1. **Current interest rate level and policy stance**: The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% at the March 18, 2026 meeting and emphasized that the current economic situation faces dual risks of slowing growth and rising inflation. The Bank of Canada governor stated in the statement that cutting rates to support economic growth could cause inflation to exceed the target, indicating that the Bank of Canada tends to keep rates stable in the short term to observe further changes in economic data (QTXrlH4E, AnJLBgW9). 2. **Economic forecasts and expert opinions**: Multiple institutions and economists expect the Bank of Canada to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026. For example, Michael Davenport, senior economist at Oxford Economics, expects the Bank of Canada to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026 and only possibly raise rates in 2027 (6N0nb5jm). In addition, major Canadian banks and economists generally believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain a prudent policy stance in 2026 unless economic data deteriorates significantly (fpwHyhh1). 3. **Balance between inflation and economic growth**: Canada's inflation rate at the end of 2025 was 2.4%, and it is expected to remain near the 2% target in 2026. Although economic growth expectations are relatively moderate, the Bank of Canada still needs to balance controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. Current economic data show slowing growth and persistently high unemployment, further supporting the likelihood of the Bank of Canada keeping rates unchanged in the short term (6tsMHey3, cDrV15D9). 4. **Market expectations and interest rate forecasts**: According to multiple interest rate forecast models, the expected rate change for June 2026 is predominantly a hold. For example, some forecasts show that the Bank of Canada's rate in June 2026 may remain between 2.00% and 2.25%, and a rate hike is unlikely (fhntu4GI). In summary, based on the current economic situation, expert forecasts, and the Bank of Canada's policy stance, it is reasonable to infer that the Bank of Canada is more likely to hike rates by 0 basis points at the June 10, 2026 meeting.

As of March 20, 2026, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% again on March 18, having held steady multiple times since late 2025. Economic data show Q4 GDP contraction, labor market weakness (unemployment rate rose to 6.7%), exports dragged by US tariffs, and growth risks tilted to the downside; core inflation is near the 2% target. Although the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices and will temporarily lift headline inflation, the central bank has clearly stated it will 'look through' one-off shocks unless they evolve into persistent inflation. The January MPR and March statement both point to a wait-and-see stance under high uncertainty and emphasize readiness to respond if necessary. A Reuters survey in mid-March showed all economists expected a hold in March, and 76% expected rates to remain unchanged throughout the year. Before the June meeting, there is an April MPR update, but current weak growth and anchored inflation make a 0 bp change (hold) the baseline scenario, with low probability of large rate hikes or cuts.

As of March 20, 2026, a Reuters survey on March 13 showed all 33 economists unanimously expected the Bank of Canada to keep rates at 2.25% on March 18, and 76% of respondents expected at least no change throughout 2026; the central bank's March 18 rate decision statement also maintained 2.25% and emphasized high uncertainty from economic weakness, a soft labor market, US trade policy, and the Middle East conflict pushing up energy prices, stating it will act based on data. Combining mainstream economists and the central bank's wait-and-see signals, the probability of a 0 basis point hike (i.e., holding steady) at the June 10 meeting is highest. However, risks of policy shifts remain if persistently high oil prices cause inflation expectations to de-anchor or if the economy slows more than expected.

I choose YES, predicting that the policy rate will have a net change of 0 basis points on June 10 and remain unchanged. The verified facts as of the cutoff are: the Bank of Canada kept the rate at 2.25% on March 18, believing the economy still has excess supply and recent growth is weaker than expected; February employment fell by 84,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%; headline inflation fell to 1.8% and core measures are close to 2%. The central bank also said it would look through the immediate impact of the energy shock on inflation and needs time to judge whether price pressures are spreading. My inference is that weak demand and near-target underlying inflation make a June hike threshold high, while a rate cut would be constrained by energy inflation risks, so holding steady is the most likely single outcome.

My judgment is YES: As of March 20, 2026, the probability of the June meeting maintaining the 2.25% policy rate is significantly higher than a rate hike. The March 13 Reuters economist survey showed that the majority predicted the Bank of Canada would keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2026; the central bank also chose to hold steady on March 18 due to weakening economic growth, a soft labor market, and inflation near 2%.[web:8][web:35][web:16][web:24]

As of March 20, 2026, public monetary policy signals show that the Bank of Canada has already gradually paused its rate hike process, inflation has fallen back to near the target range, economic growth momentum remains moderate, and the market widely expects the June meeting to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, meaning a rate hike of 0 bps.

As of March 20, 2026, the Bank of Canada has kept the policy rate at 2.25% for three consecutive meetings in December 2025, January 2026, and March 18, 2026, and its statements have deliberately tempered market expectations for further rate cuts. Canada's 2026 GDP growth forecast is only about 1.1%, inflation is near the 2% target, and the economy has neither overheating pressure nor an acute crisis, so the most likely outcome for the June 10 meeting is 'holding steady' (0bps change = unchanged).

As of March 20, 2026, after the rate cut cycle from 2024 to 2025, the Bank of Canada has likely reached or is near its terminal rate. If inflation is near the 2% target, economic growth is moderate, and there are no major new shocks, the probability of keeping the policy rate unchanged (i.e., 0bps change) at the June 10 meeting is higher than a cut or hike. 0bps is the baseline scenario, but because data may change in the next two months, the advantage is not overwhelming.

As of March 20, 2026, the Bank of Canada has not released any interest rate guidance for the June 2026 meeting, and there is no authoritative consensus forecast that clearly supports a 0 basis point rate hike in June. The rate decision will depend on inflation, employment, and growth data over the coming months, which have not all been released yet, so there is high uncertainty. Based on historical behavior, the Bank of Canada tends to keep policy space open when data is unclear rather than committing to a 0 basis point hold, which slightly increases the likelihood of 'not hiking by 0 basis points'.

Based on public information available before March 20, 2026, no clear forecast or decision basis was found for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates by 0 basis points at the June 2026 meeting, but a 0 basis point hike means no adjustment to interest rates. Combined with historical decision-making habits, the possibility of no adjustment exists and is relatively high.