Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

In early March 2026, due to a sharp escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the official settlement price of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) WTI crude oil (CL) front-month futures contract surged dramatically on March 8-9 and broke above $110 per barrel (official settlement price reached above $114 per barrel). According to the settlement rules of this prediction market, as long as on any trading day before the last trading day of March 2026, the official settlement price of the CME front-month crude oil futures contract is equal to or higher than $110, the market is determined as YES. This condition was clearly met before mid-March.

As of March 17, 2026, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has severely disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, creating a massive global crude oil supply gap. Market data shows that WTI crude oil futures prices surged significantly in mid-March, reaching the $94-100 range with extreme volatility. Given the extremely high geopolitical risk premium and Brent crude having already broken above $110, WTI as the active contract is highly likely to break above $110 on a settlement basis in late March, driven by panic buying and supply disruption expectations. Historical data and market sentiment both point to oil prices remaining high or even spiking further during peak conflict periods.

As of March 17, 2026, the WTI front-month contract (April) settled at approximately $98.7 per barrel, with Brent around $103-106, up about 40% from pre-war levels. After the US-Israel strike on Iran on February 28, Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz (carrying about one-fifth of global oil and gas transportation), and the conflict was still escalating on the deadline day (drone attacks on the UAE's Shah gas field, fire at Fujairah port, Israel killing Iran's security chief). WTI is only about $12 away from $110, and within about 10 trading days, if the geopolitical situation further deteriorates or the strait is effectively fully interrupted, the front-month settlement price reaching the $110 threshold is highly attainable.

As of the US market close on March 16, WTI front-month futures were about $94.5 and Brent about $99.4 (on March 11, WTI was only about $87.2). On March 17 Asian session, prices rose another 2%-3% due to Iran's attacks on the UAE and other places. To meet the official settlement price ≥$110 threshold, it must rise another about 13%-16% in about 11 trading days from March 17 to 31. The US-Iran conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz constitute a real upside tail risk, but on March 16, some vessels resumed passage, causing oil prices to fall about 3% in a single day, combined with strategic reserve releases and high prices suppressing demand, the rise is not one-sided; even the bullish Citi short-term forecast (Brent $110-120, WTI spread widening to $12) implies a WTI range of only about $98-108, still below the $110 settlement line. Overall, the probability of touching a $110 settlement price within the window is less than 50%, so I choose NO, 55% vs 45%.

My independent judgment is NO, with a probability of 58%. As of the knowledge cutoff, the front-month WTI settlement on March 16 was $93.50; the $95.95 at 03:57 GMT on March 17 is only an intraday quote, still about 12.8% below $110, and does not meet the official settlement condition. On March 16, the price exceeded $102 intraday but ultimately settled at $93.50, highlighting that the settlement price threshold in this question is significantly harder than an ordinary intraday touch. Combined with the April contract expiring on March 20 and the specified rules, analysis infers that the active month will switch on March 18, leaving only about 10 settlement opportunities for the May contract. The IEA's 400 million barrel stock release, near-record US production, and partial resumption of vessel traffic provide downward pressure. Therefore, a $110 settlement is not my base case. However, the IEA confirmed that Hormuz flows have dropped from about 20 million barrels per day to very little, and Gulf production has been cut by at least 10 million barrels per day; OVX on March 16 was still 101.97, indicating extreme tail volatility, so YES still retains a substantial 42% probability.

As of the knowledge cutoff on March 17, 2026, the settlement price of the active WTI CL contract was around $93-96 (March 16 settlement about $93.50, March 17 intraday and settlement around $96), and Brent was about $103. The severe disruption of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict caused a huge supply shock and extremely high volatility (intraday high on March 9 was nearly $119). Technical resistance could be seen higher, but WTI is suppressed by U.S. SPR releases, domestic supply, and a widening discount to Brent, and recent settlement prices have failed to hold above $100. With about 10 trading days remaining, the settlement price would need to reach or exceed $110 on a single day. Although escalation risks support short-term spikes, demand destruction, policy intervention, and mean-reversion pressure make the probability low, so it is judged that it will not be touched.

Based on information available as of March 17, 2026, the probability of crude oil prices reaching $110 before the end of March is low. The main reasons are as follows: 1. **Market supply and demand and OPEC+ policy**: OPEC+ maintained a policy of pausing production increases in the first quarter of 2026 to address seasonal demand declines and market stability. Although production increases may gradually resume at the end of March, the increase is limited (e.g., 206,000 barrels per day), insufficient to significantly push prices to $110. In addition, slowing global economic growth and downward revisions to demand forecasts (e.g., IEA lowering its 2026 demand growth forecast) further suppress upward price momentum. 2. **Geopolitical risk premium**: Although Middle East conflicts (such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) caused a short-term surge in oil prices (over 30% increase in March, Brent breaking above $102 per barrel), the market generally expects the supply disruption to be short-lived. Analysis institutions (such as S&P Global, Allianz) believe that as the conflict eases or alternative supply routes are used, oil prices will gradually fall back to the $80-90 range after April, making it difficult to sustain a push to the $110 high. 3. **Price forecasts and technical analysis**: Mainstream institutions' forecasts for March 2026 oil prices are generally concentrated in the $90-100 range (e.g., S&P Global expects March Brent average of $90, IMF expects 2026 average of $82.22). Technical analysis shows that although WTI crude oil maintained a short-term bullish framework in March, resistance levels are mostly around $100, and breaking above $110 would require additional strong momentum (such as a larger supply disruption or demand surge), which is currently lacking. 4. **CME settlement price mechanism**: CME's official settlement price is based on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) during the trading session, not the intraday high. Even if the intraday price briefly spikes, the probability of the settlement price breaking above $110 is still low, as market sentiment and trading activity are unlikely to sustain such a high level. Combining the above factors, although geopolitical risks provide upside space for oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals and market expectations make it unlikely that the CL crude oil settlement price will reach $110 before the end of March.

As of March 17, 2026, crude oil futures (CL) prices have not yet approached the $110 target, and there is still a significant distance from current levels to the end of March. Considering the general expectations of market participants regarding price volatility and the macroeconomic environment, breaking through and maintaining a settlement price above $110 is quite difficult.

As of March 17, 2026, the CME crude oil futures (CL) active month contract settlement price is $95.53, a gap of $14.47 from the $110 target, with only about 10 trading days remaining. Although there was an extreme intraday high on March 9 due to the Iran geopolitical conflict, prices have since fallen significantly, and there are multiple suppressing factors in the market, making it difficult to sustain a large rise to the target price in the short term.

Based on market information as of March 17, 2026, the probability of crude oil prices touching or exceeding $110 before the end of March is low. Current market supply and demand fundamentals do not support a significant short-term surge to such a high level.

Based on currently available information, it is impossible to determine whether crude oil futures prices can reach $110 before the end of March. Market prices are influenced by many factors, including supply and demand, geopolitical situations, macroeconomic data, etc., which are uncertain.

My judgment is NO. As of 08:00 UTC on March 17, 2026, the official settlement price of the active WTI contract on the previous day was approximately $94.43, and reaching $110 would require an increase of about 16.5% by the end of the month. Although the Middle East conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and supply interruptions pose significant upside risks, the EIA's baseline forecast only shows Brent remaining above $95 for the next two months; Goldman Sachs describes $110 as an upside scenario of a one-month disruption in Hormuz flows, not a baseline scenario. Therefore, strictly according to the rule of the CME active month official settlement price reaching $110, I give NO 70%, YES 30%.[web:61][web:31][web:51]

As of March 17, 2026, public market data shows that the current CME WTI crude oil front-month contract settlement price is still significantly below $110. With less than half a month of trading days remaining in March, unless a sudden major geopolitical supply disruption occurs, it is very difficult for the price to rapidly surge to $110 or above in such a short time. Therefore, the probability of reaching that level before the end of March is judged to be relatively low.

As of March 17, 2026, the WTI active month contract settled at about $93.5 on March 16, and the early morning price on March 17 was about $96.15. To reach an official settlement price of $110 by March 31, it would need to rise another 15%–18% in about 10 trading days. Although the substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Israel war against Iran have caused extreme volatility (WTI surged 35% in the first week of March, the largest weekly gain since the contract was listed in 1983; on March 9, it briefly approached $120 intraday), the resolution requires the CME official settlement price, not the intraday price—on March 9, when the intraday price approached $120, it settled at $85.27, indicating that panic highs are difficult to convert into settlement prices. More critically, this shock is a maritime shipping route shock, and Brent benefits far more than the inland-priced WTI: the Brent-WTI spread has widened from the normal $3–4 to about $6.7 and continues to widen; at the same time, the IEA's coordinated release of 400 million barrels by 32 countries and the US SPR release of 172 million barrels (about 1.43 million barrels per day, delivered to the US Gulf Coast starting mid-March) directly suppress the WTI side. In addition, the curve is in steep backwardation, and on March 18 the active month will switch from the April contract to the May contract, mechanically lowering the reference price by several dollars. Overall, for WTI settlement to stand above $110, Brent would need to rise to roughly $120–128, which is a tail scenario requiring further major escalation. I judge the probability at about 25% and choose NO.

As of March 17, 2026, the CME crude oil futures front-month contract price is about $95-97 per barrel (Robinhood's March 17 expiry event contract shows about 79% probability of $96+ and only about 2% probability of $101+, implying market expectation of a settlement price between $96 and $101 on that day). To reach $110 before the end of March, the price would need to rise another $13-15 (about 14%) in the last approximately 10 trading days, a very large move. Although geopolitical risks such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz still provide tail upside risk (Bank of America research says if the strait is closed for a long time, oil prices could sustain $110-$150), OPEC+ decided on March 1 to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, and short-term event markets price an extremely low probability of breaking above triple-digit highs. Therefore, unless the conflict escalates significantly in the coming days, the probability of the front-month settlement price touching $110 is low, and NO is higher.