Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

As of August 23, 2026, market pricing from leading Fed funds futures data shows a ~78% implied probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave the upper bound of the target federal funds range unchanged at the September 15-16, 2026 meeting, aligning with recent Fed communications emphasizing patience on policy adjustments amid stable core inflation and near-target employment trends.

As of the 2026-08-23 cutoff, the federal funds target range has stood at 3.50-3.75% since the December 11, 2025 cut, and the FOMC has held at all five 2026 meetings to date. The hawkish minority is real: the July 28-29 vote was 9-3, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a 25bp hike, and the minutes released August 19 disclosed that 'several participants favored an increase of 25 basis points at this meeting' and that many judged tightening 'would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.' But that condition has not been triggered: July CPI (released August 12) showed headline at 3.4% y/y and core at 2.5% y/y, each down 0.1pp, with monthly headline at just +0.1%. Meanwhile the July employment report (August 7) showed payrolls contracting by 23,000 against expectations of roughly +85,000. Delivering the first hike in about three years into shrinking payrolls would be extraordinary, and it would require Chair Warsh -- who voted to hold in July -- to reverse himself and carry roughly four additional voters. Prediction markets agree, pricing about 68% hold, 31% hike and 1% cut, and Goldman Sachs calls a September hike 'very unlikely,' expecting 3.50-3.75% through year-end. I sit modestly above market pricing on institutional inertia and vote arithmetic, but not far above it, because Warsh deliberately does not telegraph policy (making market pricing less informative than in the Powell era) and three inflation prints remain before the meeting amid an energy shock. I select YES: no change at the September 15-16 meeting.

As of the Aug 23, 2026 cutoff, the balance of evidence favors the FOMC leaving the upper bound of the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75% after its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. Market pricing supports this: CME FedWatch showed roughly a 61% hold probability on Aug 23 (69.4% on Aug 17), and public source/public source priced a hold near 70.5 cents on Aug 18, with cuts priced at only about 1%. The data flow since early August shifted decisively away from the mid-summer hike scare (when odds of a September hike hit 73-82% amid $100 Brent): the July jobs report showed net job losses (~-23k) with 103k of downward revisions and a 4.1% unemployment rate, and July CPI was tame (+0.1% m/m headline, core 2.5% y/y, both annual rates down 0.1pp, energy falling m/m in June and July). Goldman Sachs called a September hike 'very unlikely' and forecasts a hold through 2026, joined by MUFG and Morgan Stanley. The July FOMC's 9-member majority held even while oil spiked, so flipping to a hike requires renewed inflation acceleration. The material risk is a 25bp hike: three hawkish dissents in July, hawkish minutes, new Chair Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting posture, unresolved US-Iran conflict, and four major catalysts (Jackson Hole keynote Aug 28, July PCE, August payrolls, August CPI) still to come keep hike odds elevated near 34-39%. On net, no change is more likely than not, but far from certain, warranting medium confidence.

As of late August 2026, financial market pricing and economic consensus indicate that the Federal Reserve is most likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 15–16, 2026. After maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 28–29 meeting, softer U.S. economic data—notably an unexpected decline in July payrolls and subdued CPI/PPI inflation readings—muted earlier hawkish momentum for a September rate increase. CME FedWatch data as of August 22, 2026, places the probability of a rate hold (no change) at approximately 60%–63%, while prediction markets quote a hold near 65%–70%. Major forecasters including Goldman Sachs project that the Fed will remain on hold. Consequently, the outcome of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting is favored to resolve YES.

Market expectations and analyst reports from August 2025 indicate that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a likely resumption of rate cuts starting in September 2025 after a nine-month pause. This dovish pivot, supported by Governor Waller and driven by fading trade tensions and AI-driven earnings, suggests an easing cycle was underway. By August 2026, if this trajectory continued without major inflationary shocks, the Fed would likely be in a cutting or holding phase rather than hiking. However, the specific question is whether there will be 'no change' in September 2026. Given the signal for cuts in late 2025, it is probable that rates were already lower or stabilizing. Yet, market pricing often anticipates moves. If the easing cycle began in Sept 2025, by Sept 2026, the Fed might be pausing to assess effects or continuing cuts. The prompt asks if there will be NO CHANGE. If the trend is cutting, 'No Change' is less likely than a cut, unless the cycle has paused. However, recent signals (Aug 2025) pointed to *resumption* of cuts. If cuts resumed in Sept 2025, they might continue or pause in 2026. Without specific 2026 data pre-cutoff, we rely on the Aug 2025 signal which favored cuts. If the market expects cuts, 'No Change' is contrary to the immediate prior signal. But wait, the signal was for Sept *2025*. The question is Sept *2026*. A year later. The cycle could have normalized. Standard monetary policy often involves pauses. However, the most distinct signal available is the start of cuts. If cuts started in Sept 2025, by Sept 2026, the Fed might be on hold. Let's look at the probability. If the Fed cuts in Sept 2025, it may cut again in late 2025/early 2026. By Sept 2026, they might pause. Or continue. The 'Higher for Longer' narrative was from 2023 [4]. The 2025 narrative is 'cuts' [1]. If cuts resume in Sept 2025, it is highly uncertain if they stop exactly by Sept 2026. However, usually, prediction markets on 'No Change' are high if the Fed is data-dependent. But the explicit signal was for *cuts*. If the question implies a binary of Cut vs No Cut, and the trend is cut, 'No Change' is risky. Conversely, if the Fed has already cut significantly, they might pause. Given the lack of specific Sept 2026 guidance in the pre-cutoff sources (only Sept 2025 guidance), there is high uncertainty. However, typically, after a series of cuts, a pause is common. But the source [1] says 'support global risk assets over the next 6-12 months' from Aug 2025. This covers Sept 2026. It implies a supportive (cutting/easy) stance. If the stance is supportive, they might still be cutting or holding low. 'No change' is a specific outcome. In many cycles, the Fed holds more often than it changes. Statistically, 'No Change' is often the most probable single outcome in any given meeting unless a turning point is explicitly signaled for *that* specific meeting. The signal was for Sept *2025*. For Sept *2026*, no specific signal exists in the provided text. Therefore, the base rate of 'No Change' (statistical likelihood) combined with the absence of a specific 'Cut' signal for Sept 2026 (only for Sept 2025) suggests 'No Change' is a strong candidate, but the prevailing mood is easing. Actually, if the Fed is in an easing cycle, they might cut every meeting or skip. Skipping is common. Thus, 'No Change' is plausible. But let's look at the options. YES = No Change. NO = Change. If I must choose, the statistical probability of no change in any random meeting is >50%. Unless there is a strong signal for a change *in that specific meeting*. The signal was for Sept 2025. Not Sept 2026. Therefore, for Sept 2026, the default is No Change.

As of August 23, 2026, the balance of evidence favors no change in the Fed's federal funds rate after the September 15-16 meeting, with market pricing showing roughly 50-70% probability of no change, weakening labor data (July payrolls fell 23,000), and offsetting hawkish factors including three dissents in July and inflation still above 2%. The Fed faces conflicting signals but likely prioritizes data dependence and risk management over immediate action.

YES is my forecast: the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting is currently more likely to leave the federal funds target range unchanged than to change it. Futures-based estimates cited by Reuters put the September hike probability at 38% on August 12 and roughly one-third on August 20, while the latest official implementation note shows the range at 3.50%–3.75%. However, the July 9–3 vote and minutes indicating that several participants favored a 25-basis-point increase keep the outcome relatively close.

As of the Aug 23, 2026 cutoff, the fed funds target range stood at 3.50%-3.75% (upper bound 3.75%) and had been held unchanged for five straight FOMC meetings. Market-implied pricing for the Sept 15-16 meeting pointed to a hold as the modal outcome: CME FedWatch showed a ~55.6% hold probability for the Sept 16 meeting in early August, rising toward ~60-67% by mid-to-late August as weak retail sales and consumer-confidence data cooled hike expectations. The only realistic alternative to 'no change' was a 25bp hike, supported by three hawkish dissents at the July meeting and July minutes noting officials saw a need to hike if inflation failed to cool. With inflation at 3.4% YoY (cooling) and incoming activity data softening, a hike was not the base case. Net, 'no change' is the more probable resolution.

As of August 23, 2026, I forecast YES: the FOMC is more likely than not to leave the federal-funds target range unchanged in September. The latest futures-derived estimate assigned a 61% probability to retaining the 3.50%-3.75% range, while weak July employment and moderating July inflation favor waiting. This is only a modest edge because three FOMC voters favored a July hike and the minutes showed broader conditional support for tightening if inflation fails to decline.

As of the 2026-08-23 cutoff, the federal funds target range is 3.50%-3.75% (upper bound 3.75%), unchanged for five consecutive meetings through July 2026, when the FOMC held 9-3 with three dissents favoring a 25bp hike. For the September 15-16, 2026 meeting, the weight of contemporaneous evidence points to no change: after the benign July CPI (released Aug 12), Reuters reported traders 'stick to narrow bets on a September Fed hold', and CME FedWatch on Aug 22 priced a September hold at 59.9% versus 40.1% for a cumulative 25bp hike, with a cut priced near zero. The hawkish July minutes (Aug 19) make a hike the main alternative, but a hold remains the modal and analyst-endorsed outcome, and the market's fallback rule (no statement by the next meeting resolves to No change) adds negligible extra support to YES.

As of the 2026-08-23 cutoff, the Fed is plausibly in the late stage of the easing cycle that resumed in September 2025, which has likely brought the target range toward the mid-3% area, close to FOMC participants' neutral-rate estimates. With limited remaining distance to neutral, core inflation still above the 2% goal (partly reflecting 2025 tariff pass-through), and hold decisions being the historically modal single-meeting outcome, an extended pause into H2 2026 is the base case. I therefore lean toward no change in the upper bound of the target range at the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting, while acknowledging that September has recently been an 'action' month and that a new, dovish Fed leadership under political pressure could still deliver a 25bp cut.

Fed Chair Powell signaled the likely resumption of Fed rate cuts from September after a nine-month pause, a view reaffirmed by Fed Governor Waller. This suggests that there is a high probability of a change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting.

As of August 23, 2026, the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluded on June 17, 2026, with the decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. The FOMC's projections from June 2026 indicate a cautious stance, with members noting solid economic growth, little change in the unemployment rate, and inflation remaining elevated relative to the 2% target. The Committee explicitly removed language suggesting an easing bias, signaling a more neutral or wait-and-see approach regarding future rate changes. Economic data as of August 2026 shows GDP growth at a modest 1.5% annual rate for Q2 2026, with inflation projections for 2026 revised upward to 4.7% before easing in 2027. Market expectations, as reflected in Fed Funds futures and commentary from major financial institutions, have shifted significantly since June. Goldman Sachs and other market analysts now consider a rate hike at the September 2026 meeting to be 'very unlikely,' citing softer retail sales, disappointing employment data, and slowing inflation prints. However, some institutions like Citadel Securities have warned of persistent inflation pressures, keeping the possibility of a hike alive, albeit with reduced probability. The FOMC's decision-making framework emphasizes data dependency, and the latest economic indicators suggest a cooling trend that reduces the likelihood of a rate increase in September. The resolution criteria for this market specify that if no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to 'No change.' Given the current economic context and market expectations, the probability of no change in the federal funds rate after the September 2026 meeting is high.