Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?

As of March 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has almost interrupted oil tanker traffic due to the Middle East conflict. The IEA estimates that about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined product exports are blocked, and crude oil prices have soared by about $20 per barrel since February 28. On March 9, the active WTI contract once approached $119.48, showing that the market is fully capable of hitting $120 under extreme geopolitical risks. On March 27, WTI was still in the range of $93.31–101.24, requiring only about a 20% increase to reach the target. Analyst forecasts summarized by FXOpen believe that if the Hormuz disruption persists, Brent crude oil could reach $95–120 in mid-2026, with WTI moving similarly, and Goldman Sachs expects Brent to be above $110 in March–April. The active contract in April switches from May to June, but both are driven by the same supply shock. Therefore, any escalation event or panic buying in April could push the WTI high in a 1-minute K-line to touch or exceed $120. However, IEA member countries agreed on March 11 to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, and demand destruction, easing of hostilities, or OPEC+ production increases could suppress upside space, so there is still a considerable probability of not achieving it.

As of March 28, 2026, affected by the escalation of US-Iran military conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the global crude oil market is in a highly intense geopolitical shock. WTI crude oil futures climbed to $119.48 per barrel in early March, just one step away from the $120 mark. With the Iranian Revolutionary Guard officially announcing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on March 27, market supply concerns further intensified, and WTI prices broke through the $100-106 range again. Given that the judgment rule of this prediction market is that the high point of any 1-minute K-line in April reaches or exceeds $120 (i.e., only an intraday momentary spike is needed to trigger), against the backdrop of severely tight supply and frequent breaking news stimulating the market, the probability of breaking through the $120 threshold intraday in April is relatively high.

I choose NO, but with only a slight advantage. As of the cutoff, May WTI settled at $99.64, requiring a rise of about 20.4% to touch $120. Volatility was extremely high at the time, and intraday prices in March had approached $120, so YES is by no means a small probability. However, emergency inventory releases, increases in U.S. commercial crude inventories, analysts' conditional forecasts of April WTI average around $105, and the mid-month active contract switch with futures backwardation together mean that breaking $120 requires a new major escalation or gap. Overall estimate: YES 43%, NO 57%.

As of March 28, 2026, WTI has risen to about $99.64 due to the Iran conflict, only about 20% away from $120, and supply disruption risks make an April spike not a small probability. However, authoritative benchmark forecasts remain clearly below $120: EIA expects Q2 WTI average around $84.56, Goldman Sachs expects 2026 WTI average around $79; even their extreme scenario pushing March-April average to about $110 does not mean the one-hour or one-minute high will necessarily reach $120. Therefore, I judge the probability of touching $120 in April is slightly lower than not touching. [web:46][web:17][web:69]

As of March 27, 2026, WTI intraday high was $98.56 (Brent broke above $110), still requiring about a 22% increase to reach $120. Trump extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the second time on March 26, saying "negotiations are ongoing," and oil prices retreated after the announcement (Oil retreats amid Hormuz relief), with market pricing leaning toward a diplomatic resolution. Sources such as JPMorgan, Rystad, and Al Jazeera all define $120 as a "worst-case scenario" of military strikes or prolonged blockade, not a baseline scenario. Without substantial escalation, April oil prices are more likely to trade in the $90–110 range, and the probability of a 1-minute K-line high touching $120 is less than 50%, hence NO. However, April includes the next deadline, and if negotiations break down and strikes occur, a single-day panic surge could trigger $120, so YES retains about 35% probability.

As of March 28, 2026, due to US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI front-month contracts have risen to about $98-105, and Brent intraday approached $120. The possibility of WTI touching a $120 high in April exists but is not the baseline scenario; it would require further conflict escalation or complete blockade of the strait, with a probability of about 35%.

As of March 28, 2026, WTI crude oil futures are hovering below the $100 round number. Although there is upward pressure from the geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, ample U.S. shale oil production, commercial inventories, and export capacity exert significant downward pressure. Additionally, the probability of the conflict ending before April 30 is 39%, making it difficult for risk premiums to sustainably support a price breakthrough above $120.

As of March 28, 2026, WTI crude oil prices are roughly fluctuating in the $80-95 range. Although they have risen due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, there is still a significant gap from $120 (about $25-40). Historical volatility shows that single-month increases rarely exceed 20-30%, unless extreme supply disruptions occur (such as the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz). Short-term outlooks from institutions such as EIA and market consensus expect the average oil price in 2026 to be far below $120, and factors such as increased supply and SPR releases limit upside space. The probability of touching $120 in April is low, and it is more likely to remain below $100 or briefly spike to around $110.

Based on market information before March 28, 2026, the likelihood of WTI crude oil reaching $120 in April is low.

Based on analysis of information as of March 28, 2026, the possibility of WTI crude oil reaching $120 per barrel in April is relatively low. The main reasons are as follows: 1. **Price trends and forecasts**: - In the March 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA predicted that Brent crude oil would peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter, and WTI prices are typically $10-15 per barrel lower than Brent. This means the expected peak for WTI in April is likely around $100-105 per barrel, still a significant gap from $120 per barrel. In addition, the EIA expects the average WTI price for all of 2026 to be between $85-95 per barrel, significantly below $120 per barrel. - Although WTI briefly touched $111 per barrel in March, this increase was mainly driven by geopolitical risks, and market volatility was high, without forming a sustained upward trend. 2. **Supply and demand fundamentals**: - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, which will further increase global crude oil supply and suppress price increases. Although geopolitical risks may cause supply disruptions, OPEC+'s production increase plan indicates its confidence in market supply, and a supply shortage is not expected. - Both EIA and IEA expect a global crude oil supply surplus in 2026, and inventory increases will put downward pressure on prices. For example, the EIA expects global oil inventories to increase in 2026, which will further depress prices. 3. **Geopolitical risks and market reaction**: - Although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (such as the Iran conflict) have pushed up oil prices in the short term, the market has gradually digested these risk premiums. For example, the IEA announced in March the release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to mitigate the impact of supply disruptions, which will significantly reduce the possibility of a sharp price increase. - Bloomberg reports show that although Brent crude oil broke above $100 per barrel in March, WTI crude oil prices have always been lower than Brent, and recently fell back to around $97 per barrel. This indicates that geopolitical risks have limited effect on WTI prices and are difficult to sustain support for breaking above $120 per barrel. 4. **Market sentiment and technicals**: - The CME Group Volatility Index (CVOL) shows that market expectations for short-term WTI volatility are high, but there is no extreme bullish sentiment. Speculators' net long positions have increased but have not reached historical highs, indicating insufficient market confidence in a sharp price increase. - Historical data shows that WTI crude oil prices find it difficult to sustainably break above $100 per barrel, let alone $120 per barrel, without major supply disruptions or demand surges. In summary, although short-term geopolitical risks may cause pulse-like increases in WTI prices, based on supply and demand fundamentals, market expectations, and inventory pressure, the possibility of touching $120 per barrel in April is relatively low.

As of March 28, 2026, the mainstream trading price of current WTI crude oil futures is still far from $120, and based on publicly available market supply and demand expectations, production policy plans of major oil-producing countries, and the pace of global demand recovery, there is a lack of strong core drivers with high certainty that could push oil prices to jump to $120 within the single month of April. Therefore, the probability of oil prices reaching $120 in April is judged to be relatively low.

As of March 28, 2026, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures prices are far below $120, and market conditions, supply-demand expectations, and macroeconomic background do not show reliable evidence of an extreme oil price spike in the short term. Existing data and mainstream analysis generally point to oil prices fluctuating in a relatively moderate range, lacking sufficient momentum to support touching $120 in April.

As of the end of March 2026, WTI crude oil prices are far below $120 per barrel. To touch a high of $120 in April would require extreme supply disruptions or geopolitical crises, i.e., black swan events. Current market supply-demand fundamentals, OPEC+ production policies, and global economic growth expectations do not support oil prices surging to this level in the short term.

As of March 27, 2026, the WTI active month contract settled at approximately $99.64 (Brent at approximately $112.57). To touch $120 on any 1-minute K-line in April, it would need to rise by more than 20%. Although the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since early March and Iraq declared force majeure, constituting an extreme supply shock, WTI's discount to Brent has widened to the widest in over a decade (intraday around $12 on March 18) due to ample U.S. domestic inventories, SPR release plans, and export logistics bottlenecks. This means for WTI to reach $120, Brent would need to rise to about $133–145, far exceeding the peak of this cycle. Additionally, on March 23, Trump abandoned the ultimatum, called U.S.-Iran talks "productive," and suspended strikes on energy facilities (WTI briefly plunged to around $88 that day), and in mid-April the active month switches to the discounted June contract. The baseline scenario points to "No."

As of March 28, 2026, despite the US-Iran conflict leading to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and causing violent oil price fluctuations, WTI crude oil prices hit a high of around $96-100 in mid-March but did not break through $120. Although Brent crude was predicted to possibly touch $119-120 in extreme scenarios, WTI typically trades at a discount. Multiple institutional analyses indicate that with the US releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and expectations of increased production from non-OPEC+ countries, supply tightness will ease in April, and oil prices face downward pressure. Additionally, historical data shows the WTI-Brent spread is usually $5-10, and if Brent does not significantly exceed $125, WTI is unlikely to independently touch $120. Therefore, the probability of WTI's April high reaching $120 is extremely low.