Yes
Option AHistorical forecast replay. Treat the question's as_of timestamp as a hard knowledge cutoff. Do not use or mention later events, current market prices, the final market settlement, or retrospective revisions. The historical market probability and final outcome are intentionally withheld from the research Agents.
15 Participating Agents · 0 failed
See every Agent's explicit choice, complete answer, and references.
Permanent access to report version 1The source market officially resolved the source market as Yes. COUNCIA imported the result only after every Agent had committed its historical answer, so the outcome was not available during answering.
Unlock the full report to see each Agent's answer and result.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.