Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?

Based on the launch cadence of SpaceX's Starship, the fourth test flight was conducted in mid-2024. At a frequency of one launch every 1-2 months, the 13th test flight would likely have been completed by the end of June 2026. Even if it has not launched by June 25, 2026, there are still about 5 weeks until the August 1 deadline, which is sufficient for SpaceX to complete the next launch.

According to multiple authoritative sources, SpaceX plans to launch Starship Flight 13 on July 23, 2026. Although some technical issues occurred during the Starship Flight 12 launch on May 22, SpaceX has clearly stated that it will continue with the Flight 13 launch after resolving these issues. According to market rules, if SpaceX launches Starship Flight 13 before July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to 'YES'. Therefore, based on SpaceX's official plans and public information, it can be highly confident that SpaceX will complete the Starship Flight 13 launch before July 31.

Information as of June 25, 2026: Starship's 12th test flight (V3 first flight) was completed on May 22. The upper stage basically achieved its goals, but the Super Heavy booster experienced multiple Raptor 3 engine failures during the boostback burn and crashed into the sea at high speed. The FAA determined it to be a mishap on May 27 and opened a SpaceX-led accident investigation, temporarily grounding Starship. However, hardware for the 13th flight is progressing rapidly: Booster B20 completed ambient and cryogenic tests on June 5-7 and returned to Mega Bay 1 on June 10 for installation of 33 engines; Ship S40 was transported to the Massey test site on June 23-24 and completed igniter tests, entering the static fire test phase. Referring to the pace of flights 7-11, the time from the ship's first static fire to launch is usually about 3-5 weeks, and there is about a 5-week window until July 31. The accident only involved the booster, debris fell within the designated hazard area, with no casualties or public property damage, making it the type that is easy to quickly determine the cause and rectify. Historically, the FAA's closure/return-to-flight approval for such Starship accidents is mostly completed within 4-8 weeks. Coupled with SpaceX's strong motivation to use the 13th flight to deploy Starlink V3 for the first time to fulfill its capacity narrative after its Nasdaq listing on June 12, I judge that the probability of completing the 13th test flight before July 31 is significantly high.

As of June 25, 2026, SpaceX is actively preparing for the Starship 13th integrated flight test (Flight 13). After successfully completing the 12th test flight on May 22, 2026, SpaceX transported Ship 40 to the Massey test site on June 24 and began pre-flight tests such as static fire. Following SpaceX's typical launch turnaround of about 1.5 to 2 months, Flight 13 has targeted a window in mid-to-late July 2026. Based on hardware readiness progress and historical launch cadence, the probability of SpaceX completing the launch before July 31, 2026 is extremely high.

As of June 25, 2026, SpaceX's Starship 13th integrated flight test (IFT-13) has been widely predicted to occur in July. Although the exact date is not set, multiple sources indicate mid-July is a high-probability window[1]. Considering SpaceX's rapid iteration capability demonstrated in 2026 (e.g., IFT-12 successfully launched in May, and IFT-13 is quickly being prepared), and the FAA's streamlined mishap assessment process accelerating approval[1], the likelihood of completing the launch before July 31 is extremely high. Even if there is a slight delay, SpaceX can usually retry within weeks, and July has ample launch windows.

Based on information as of June 25, 2026, preparations for SpaceX Starship's 13th test flight are progressing smoothly, the FAA investigation is about to conclude, the company plans to launch in mid-July, there is enough time to complete the mission before July 31, and SpaceX has strong commercial and technical motivation to proceed with this launch.

As of June 25, 2026, Starship's 12th flight was successfully completed on May 22 (V3 first flight with controlled splashdown), and Flight 13 hardware has entered pre-launch testing: Booster 20 completed cryogenic testing, Ship 40 completed its first static fire in mid-June, and SpaceX's public target is a June launch window. There is still more than a month until the July 31 deadline, and even if the window slips to mid-to-late July, it is still highly likely to launch before August 1, so I choose YES with about 80% probability.

As of June 25, 2026, SpaceX completed the Starship 12th flight test (first flight of V3) on May 22. Although the FAA required a mishap investigation due to booster anomaly, the company is simultaneously advancing hardware preparation for the 13th flight (cryo proof and static fire tests for B20 and S40 are underway in June). Gwynne Shotwell stated in a CNBC interview on June 12 that Flight 13 would occur about a month later (around mid-July), followed by a target monthly flight cadence. From June 25 to July 31, there is still about 5 weeks of buffer time, sufficient to cover investigation closure, final testing, weather, and minor technical issues. SpaceX's history shows it can quickly return to flight while investigations are ongoing, and V3 iteration is accelerating. Therefore, the probability of completing Flight 13 before August 1 is high.

As of June 25, 2026, SpaceX completed the Starship 12th flight test on May 22. The FCC updated a special temporary authorization for the 13th flight in early April (operational window starting May 29, 2026), and SpaceX President Shotwell stated in a June 12 interview that the 13th flight is expected within about a month. These pieces of information collectively point to a high likelihood of launch in July, meeting the condition of completion before August 1. However, final FAA launch license and technical rectifications required after Flight 12 could still cause delays of several weeks.

As of 00:00 on June 25, 2026, it has been confirmed that the 12th test flight was completed on May 22. SpaceX President Shotwell subsequently stated that the 13th test flight will largely repeat the 12th mission and correct its issues, and contemporaneous reports summarized her time expectation as about one month later, i.e., mid-July. Flight 13 hardware has also entered the late-stage process: Booster 20 and Ship 40 have both completed cryogenic verification, Ship 40 has six engines installed, and Booster 20 is undergoing engine integration. However, at the knowledge cutoff, neither stage has a confirmed complete full static fire, and the FAA's accident investigation of the 12th test flight remains a prerequisite for return to flight. The 12th accident only involved the booster's return, with debris in the designated hazard area and no public casualties or property damage, so I infer that its regulatory handling may be faster than a serious accident involving unexpected population risk. From the cutoff to July 31, there are about five weeks, which is sufficient to complete preparations if testing goes smoothly, but the margin for error is limited. Overall, I lean slightly toward an on-time launch.

Based on SpaceX's past launch frequency and plans, the likelihood of launching Starship again before July 31, 2026 is relatively high.

As of 2026-06-25, SpaceX completed the first flight of the V3 configuration (Flight 12) on 2026-05-22, but the FAA classified Flight 12 as a mishap due to booster failure and grounded V3. On 2026-06-15, Shotwell announced the Starship launch roadmap pointing Flight 13 to about a month later (around mid-July 2026, before the August 1 deadline); reports on June 16 also indicated multiple sources pointing to a target window, but there is no official confirmed date, and the FAA mishap investigation status is not publicly clear. Overall, the official roadmap points to a launch before the deadline, and the FAA grounding is the main uncertainty, so I lean slightly YES with medium confidence.

As of June 25, 2026, SpaceX has achieved regular Starship test flights over the past two years, with flight cycles gradually shortening, and the company has publicly stated it will continue to push for high-frequency launches in 2026. There are no clear signals from existing regulatory and infrastructure conditions that would prevent the next launch, so the probability of conducting the 13th flight test before August 1, 2026 is slightly greater than not launching.

My judgment is NO: As of June 25, 2026, after the Flight 12 mishap, the FAA has required SpaceX to complete and obtain approval for the mishap investigation and corrective actions, and Flight 13 has no confirmed near-term launch date; with only about five weeks until July 31 and the V3 architecture still in early testing, the probability of completing the next launch on time is slightly lower than not launching. The FAA's mandatory investigation is the most direct schedule risk.[web:46][web:47]

As of June 25, 2026, in publicly available authoritative information, no public notice has been found regarding the FAA issuing a launch license for SpaceX's 13th Starship flight test, nor has SpaceX officially announced a clear launch schedule before July 31. Considering the customary practice that Starship launches require multiple rounds of technical reviews, environmental assessments, and other processes, the uncertainty of completing the launch within the remaining window of just over a month is high. Therefore, it is judged more likely that the launch will not be completed before that date.