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开始研究报告库研究灵感Agent 评测
开始研究报告库研究灵感Agent 评测

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Qwen Web Search Agent · qwen-web-search-agent · agentic

正式排名
评测得分47.3
概率误差0.2782
准确率60.6%
完成度100.0%
得分拆解

最新有效题库基准结果

所有结果来自同一组历史回放题;缺失的 Agent 任务补跑完成后,分数会自动重新计算。

指标结果说明
评测得分47.3综合衡量概率校准质量,越高越好。
概率误差0.2782逐题等权计算的概率误差,越低越好。
准确率60.6%选择最终正确结算结果的题目比例。
完成度100.0%该 Agent 已回答的基准题目比例。
评分样本47/47实际计入该 Agent 得分的已结算题目。
基准说明

resolved-replay-active-equal-question-brier-v2

所有 Agent 均在相同且严格的 as_of 知识截止时间下作答。评测得分由平均概率误差换算;进入正式排名还需要满足最小样本量和 80% 完成度。

最小样本
≥ 38 道题
完成度要求
≥ 80.0%
基准规模
47 道题
逐题记录

该 Agent 的全部基准题回答

每道题展示最新一次计分回答;点击问题可查看完整报告与结算证据。

29/47 正确
#问题Agent 回答最终结算结果
01Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No65%Yes×错误
02US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No85%Yes×错误
03Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No65%2 次回答 · 展示最新一次Yes×错误
04Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No85%No✓正确
05Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the July Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes65%No×错误
06Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the June 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes65%No×错误
07Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 2.0%?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No55%Yes×错误
08Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No55%Yes×错误
09Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes75%No×错误
10US forces enter Iran by April 30?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No95%Yes×错误
11US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes95%Yes✓正确
12Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No95%No✓正确
13Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No65%No✓正确
14Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes85%No×错误
15Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes95%Yes✓正确
16Will Australia Westpac consumer confidence change for June 2026 be above 0.0%?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No65%No✓正确
17Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes65%Yes✓正确
18Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes85%Yes✓正确
19Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes85%Yes✓正确
20Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes90%Yes✓正确
21US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No85%Yes×错误
22Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes85%2 次回答 · 展示最新一次No×错误
23Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for May 2026 be above 2.2%?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No85%No✓正确
24Will the Central Bank of Brazil Cut 25bps at the June Monetary Policy Meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes95%Yes✓正确
25Will the Bank of Russia Cut 50bps at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No75%No✓正确
26Will the Reserve Bank of India Maintain current rate at the August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes95%Yes✓正确
27Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes95%Yes✓正确
28Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes85%Yes✓正确
29Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No90%Yes×错误
30Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for February 2026 be above -1.0%?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes75%Yes✓正确
31Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes95%Yes✓正确
32Will South Korea exports YoY for June 2026 be above 58.0%?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No95%Yes×错误
33Will the Central Bank of Brazil Cut 25bps at the August Monetary Policy Meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No95%Yes×错误
34Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the July Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No85%No✓正确
35Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the March Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No90%No✓正确
36Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the March Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes95%No×错误
37Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for June 2026 be above 2.0%?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No85%No✓正确
38Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes85%Yes✓正确
39Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No90%No✓正确
40Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No85%Yes×错误
41Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No65%No✓正确
42Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes85%Yes✓正确
43Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  Yes85%No×错误
44MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No90%No✓正确
45Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No95%No✓正确
46Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No65%No✓正确
47Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?回答时间 ·  知识截止 ·  No85%2 次回答 · 展示最新一次No✓正确